Shrink-swell hazard potential for Great Britain based on CHESS-SCAPE climate projections, from 2030s to 2070s. (PREMIUM version: 50m resolution)
This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on climate variables from 3 CHESS-SCAPE Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate projections and is named GeoClimate clay shrink-swell CHESS-SCAPE. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing a set of scenarios for projecting future greenhouse gas concentrations and their effects on the climate system. RCP2.6, is the pathway with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in the coming century reaching an expected change in radiative forcing values of 2.6 W/m2, from the year 1750 by 2100. RCP8.5 is the pathway where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated, leading to an expected change in radiative forcing values of 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. CHESS-SCAPE projections were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. This clay shrink-swell hazard projection dataset provides projections for 3 of these (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. The clay shrink-swell projection dataset provides projections up to 2070s and is generated at a 50m resolution. It provides projections for all 3 RCPs for the 3 time periods 2025-2035, 2045-2055 and 2065-2075, and there are 5 GeoClimate classifications (highly unlikely to highly likely). In addition, we provide a modelled baseline dataset, centred on 1996 (11-year window 1991 to 2001, referred to as the 1990s). This allows provision of a difference map to show the differences between a modelled baseline and the modelled forecasts. Differences in classification from the baseline are calculated for each time period to provide a value for a difference-in-classification map. Clay shrink-swell susceptible soils present significant geotechnical and structural challenges to anyone wishing to build on or in them. It is one of the costliest GB geological hazards, costing the economy over £400 million a year. Hot summers can lead to a surge in subsidence insurance claims; therefore, costs are predicted to rise to over £600 million by 2050, due to climate change-driven weather extremes. Therefore, this dataset is of interest to insurers, mortgage lenders, property owners and managers, and anyone involved in property maintenance. Armed with knowledge about potential hazards, preventative or mitigative steps can be put in place to alleviate the effects of the hazard on property and infrastructure, or loss of investment.
BGS Datasets - GeoClimate Shrink–Swell homepage
GeoClimate looks specifically at the geological factors that influence shrink-swell subsidence and the climatic effects/interactions. It does not consider any human or artificial factors. GeoClimate Shrink-swell provides information on the potential for clay shrink-swell subsidence under a range of climate scenarios. The data provide projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios.
Citation Information - Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
British Geological Survey. (2026). Shrink-swell hazard potential for Great Britain based on CHESS-SCAPE climate projections, from 2030s to 2070s. (PREMIUM version: 50m resolution). British Geological Survey. (Dataset). https://doi.org/10.5285/13142a27-f2b1-44e5-8ea4-252850d96b65