UKCP18 Climate projections and clay shrink-swell susceptibility Premium
type: Dataset
description: **Superseded latest version available here http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13608539 Shrink-swell hazard potential for Great Britain based on CHESS-SCAPE climate projections, from 2030s to 2070s. (PREMIUM version: 50m resolution)** Shrink-swell is recognised as the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on forecasts derived from the UKCP18 climate projections. The dataset has been created at two levels of detail for RCP8.5 emissions scenario and dates up to 2070. The Basic dataset is an overview at 2Km grid resolution whilst the more detailed Premium dataset is generated at a 50m resolution. The Open versions are simplified versions of the premium versions and are shared via BGS GeoIndex. The premium versions are paid for products. UKCP18 - UK Climate Projections 2018 project RCP8.5 - A pathway where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated, leading to a best estimate global average temperature rise of 4.3°C by 2100. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing those assumptions within a set of scenarios.
keyword: Clays
keyword: Climate change
keyword: Geohazards
keyword: NERC_DDC
keyword: Natural hazards
keyword: Precipitation (meteorology)
keyword: Rainfall
keyword: Shrink-swell clays
keyword: Shrinkage cracks
keyword: Temperature
issued: 2025-12-03T10:36:16.913361
modified: 2026-08-13T21:30:30.878675
spatial: Location
  geometry: {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[2.4700, 49.8400], [-8.0200, 49.8400], [-8.0200, 58.9900], [2.4700, 58.9900], [2.4700, 49.8400]]]}

British Geological Survey (BGS)
type: Organization

BGS Homepage
type: Distribution
description: Resource locator
access URL: https://www.bgs.ac.uk/
issued: 2026-08-13T21:30:30.943746
modified: 2026-08-13T21:30:30.889382